In unsupervised causal representation learning for sequential data with time-delayed latent causal influences, strong identifiability results for the disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established in stationary settings by leveraging temporal structure. However, in nonstationary setting, existing work only partially addressed the problem by either utilizing observed auxiliary variables (e.g., class labels and/or domain indexes) as side-information or assuming simplified latent causal dynamics. Both constrain the method to a limited range of scenarios. In this study, we further explored the Markov Assumption under time-delayed causally related process in nonstationary setting and showed that under mild conditions, the independent latent components can be recovered from their nonlinear mixture up to a permutation and a component-wise transformation, without the observation of auxiliary variables. We then introduce NCTRL, a principled estimation framework, to reconstruct time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data only. Empirical evaluations demonstrated the reliable identification of time-delayed latent causal influences, with our methodology substantially outperforming existing baselines that fail to exploit the nonstationarity adequately and then, consequently, cannot distinguish distribution shifts.

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in the independence information have been proposed recently. Though promising, existing approaches can still be greatly improved in terms of accuracy and scalability. We present a novel method that reduces the combinatorial explosion of the search space by using a more coarse-grained representation of causal information, drastically reducing computation time. Additionally, we propose a method to score causal predictions based on their confidence. Crucially, our implementation also allows one to easily combine observational and interventional data and to incorporate various types of available background knowledge. We prove soundness and asymptotic consistency of our method and demonstrate that it can outperform the state-ofthe-art on synthetic data, achieving a speedup of several orders of magnitude. We illustrate its practical feasibility by applying it to a challenging protein data set.

Time series graphical models have recently received considerable attention for characterizing (conditional) dependence structures in multivariate time series. In many applications, the multivariate series exhibit variable-partitioned blockwise dependence, with distinct patterns within and across blocks. In this paper, we introduce a new class of time series Gaussian chain graph models that represent contemporaneous and lagged causal relations via directed edges across blocks, while capturing within-block conditional dependencies through undirected edges. In the frequency domain, this formulation induces a cross-frequency shared group sparse plus group low-rank decomposition of the inverse spectral density matrices, which we exploit to establish identifiability of the time series chain graph structure. Building on this, we then propose a three-stage learning procedure for estimating the undirected and directed edge sets, which involves optimizing a regularized Whittle likelihood with a group lasso penalty to encourage group sparsity and a novel tensor-unfolding nuclear norm penalty to enforce group low-rank structure. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed method, ensuring its consistency for exact recovery of the chain graph structure. The superior empirical performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through both extensive simulation studies and an application to U.S. macroeconomic data that highlights key monetary policy transmission mechanisms.

There are two issues in news-driven multi-stock movement prediction tasks that are not well solved in the existing works. On the one hand, relation discovery is a pivotal part when leveraging the price information of other stocks to achieve accurate stock movement prediction. Given that stock relations are often unidirectional, such as the supplier-consumer relationship, causal relations are more appropriate to capture the impact between stocks. On the other hand, there is substantial noise existing in the news data leading to extracting effective information with difficulty. With these two issues in mind, we propose a novel framework called CausalStock for news-driven multi-stock movement prediction, which discovers the temporal causal relations between stocks.

Machine learning (ML) models have been widely used to make predictions.

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge.

For these systems, a common issue is the difficulty of collecting sufficiently refined timescale data.